Introduction
When Barry Setterfield and Trevor Norman published their work on the speed
of light decay in 1987, entitled “The Atomic Constants, Light and Time”, it
eventually sparked a great deal of controversy over not only the idea of the
decay of the speed of light (cDK), but over the way the data had been
handled by Setterfield and Norman. Accusations were made regarding
mishandling data and pre-selecting data to fit their theories. The fact
that data from such a limited time (since it had been possible to directly
measure the speed of light) was, of necessity, used and then extrapolated
backwards was also brought up. Because the earlier in time the light speed
measurements had been taken, the more subject to error they were, there were
a number of physicists who felt that no reliable curve could be fit to the
data at all. Statistician Alan Montgomery looked at the data and, after
working with it, came to the conclusion that the Setterfield-Norman paper
was correct in its use of the data. Much of the material concerning and
explaining this can be found at Lambert Dolphin’s website
(http://www.best.com/~dolphin//constc.shtml).
In the meantime, Douglas Kelly, in his book Creation and Change: Genesis
1.1-2.4 in the light of changing scientific paradigms (1997, Christian
Focus Publications, Great Britain) discusses this issue in terms of Genesis.
Endeavoring to present both sides of the cDK argument, he asked for a
comment from Professor Frederick N. Skiff. Professor Skiff responded with a
private letter which Kelly published on pp. 153 and 154 of his book. The
letter is quoted below, followed by Barry Setterfield’s response.
Helen Fryman
January 25, 1999
[Webmaster’s note: Kelly’s book supports a literal Genesis, with creation in six consecutive normal days about 6000 years ago.]
From Professor Frederick N. Skiff:
Associate Professor of Physics, University of Iowa
I see that Setterfield does indeed propose that Planck’s constant is also
changing. Therefore, the fine structure constant ‘a’ could remain truly
constant and the electron velocity in the atom could then change in a
fashion proportional to the speed of light. His hypothesis is plausible.
My concern was that if you say
1) The speed of light is changing. And
2) The electron velocity in the atom is proportional to the speed of light,
then you will generate an immediate objection from a physicist unless you
add
3) Planck’s constant is also changing in such a way as to keep the fine
structure ‘constant’ constant.
The last statement is not a small addition. It indicates that his proposal
involves a certain relations between the quantum theory (in the atom) and
relativity theory (concerning the speed of light). The relation between
these theories, in describing gravity, space and time, is recognized as one
of the most important outstanding problems in physics. At present these
theories cannot be fully reconciled, despite their many successes in
describing a wide rang of phenomena. Thus, in a way, his proposal enters
new territory rather than challenging current theory. Actually, the idea
has been around for more than a decade, but it has not been pursued for lack
of proof. My concerns are the following:
The measurements exist over a relatively short period of time. Over this
period of time the speed changes by only a small amount. No matter how good
the fit to the data is over the last few decades, it is very
speculative to extrapolate such a curve over thousands of years unless there
are other (stronger) arguments that suggest that he really has the right
curve. The fact is that there are an infinite number of mathematical curves
which fit the data perfectly (he does not seem to realize this in his
article). On the other hand, we should doubt any theory which fits the data
perfectly because we know that the data contain various kinds of errors
(which have been estimated). Therefore the range of potential curves is
even larger, because the data contain errors. There is clearly some kind of
systematic effect, but not one that can be extrapolated with much
confidence. The fact that his model is consistent with a biblical
chronology is very interesting, but not conclusive (there are an infinite
number of curves that would also agree with this chronology). The fact that
he does propose a relative well known, and simply trigonometric function is
also curious, but not conclusive.
The theoretical derivation that he gives for the variation of the speed of
light contains a number of fundamental errors. He speaks of Planck’s
constant as the quantum unit of energy, but it is the quantum unit of
angular motion. In his use of the conversion constant b he seems to
implicitly infer that the ‘basic’ photon has a frequency of 1Hz, but there
is no warrant for doing this. His use of the power density in an
electromagnetic wave as a way of calculating the rate of change of the speed
of light will not normally come out of a dynamical equation which assumes
that the speed of light is a constant (Maxwell’s Equations). If there is
validity in his model, I don’t believe that it will come from the theory
that he gives. Unfortunately, the problem is much more complicated, because
the creation is very rich in phenomena and delicate in structure.
Nevertheless, such an idea begs for an experimental test. The problem is
that the predicted changes seem to be always smaller than what can be
resolved. I share some of the concerns of the second respondent in the
Pascal Notebook article.* One would not expect to have the rate of
change of the speed of light related to the current state-of-the-art
measurement (the graph of page 4 of Pascal’s Notebook**) unless the
effect is due to bias. Effects that are ‘only there when you are not
looking’ can happen in certain contexts in quantum theory, but you would not
expect them in such a measurement as the speed of light.
There are my concerns. I think that it is very important to explore
alternative ideas. The community which is interested in looking at theories
outside of the ideologtical mainstream is small and has a difficult life.
No one scientist is likely to work out a new theory from scratch. It needs
to be a community effort, I think.
* A reference to “Decrease in the Velocity of Light: Its Meaning For
Physics” in The Pascal Centre Notebook, Vol One, Number one, July,
1990. The second respondent to Setterfield’s theory was Dr. Wytse Van Dijk,
Professor of Physics and Mathematics, Redeemer College, who asked
(concerning Professor Troistskii’s model of the slowing down of the speed of
light): “Can we test the validity of Troitskii’s model? If his model is
correct, then atomic clocks should be slowing compared to dynamic clocks.
The model could be tested by comparing atomic and gravitational time over
several years to see whether they diverge. I think such a test would be
worthwhile. The results might help us to resolve some of the issues
relation to faith and science.” ( p.5.)
** This graph consists of a correlation of accuracy of measurements of
speed of light c with the rate of change in c between 1740
and1980.
Barry Setterfield’s response:
During the early 1980’s it was my privilege to collect data on the speed of
light, c. In that time, several preliminary publications on the issue were
presented. In them the data list increased with time as further experiments
determining c were unearthed. Furthermore, the preferred curve to fit the
data changed as the data list became more complete. In several notable
cases, this process produced trails on the theoretical front and elsewhere
which have long since been abandoned as further information came in.
In August of 1987, our definitive Report on the data was issued as “The
Atomic Constants, Light and Time” in a joint arrangement with SRI
International and Flinders University. Trevor Norman and I spent some time
making sure that we had all the facts and data available, and had treated it
correctly statistically. In fact the Maths Department at Flinders Uni was
anxious for us to present a seminar on the topic. That report presented all
163 measurements of c by 16 methods over the 300 years since 1675. We also
examined all 475 measurements of 11 other c-related atomic quantities by 25
methods. These experimental data determined the theoretical approach to the
topic. From them it became obvious that, with any variation of c, energy is
going to be conserved in all atomic processes. A best fit curve to the data
was presented.
In response to criticism, it was obvious the data list was beyond
contention - we had included everything in our Report. Furthermore, the
theoretical approach withstood scrutiny, except on the two issues of the
redshift and gravitation. The main point of contention with the Report has
been the statistical treatment of the data, and whether or not these data
show a statistically significant decay in c over the last 300 years.
Interestingly, all professional statistical comment agreed that a decay in c
had occurred, while many less qualified statisticians claimed it had not! At
that point, a Canadian statistician, Alan Montgomery, liaised with Lambert
Dolphin and me, and argued the case well against all comers. He presented a
series of papers which have withstood the criticism of both the Creationist
community and others. From his treatment of the data it can be stated that c
decay (cDK) has at least formal statistical significance.
However, my forthcoming redshift paper (which also resolves the
gravitational problem) takes the available data right back beyond the last
300 years. In so doing, a complete theory of how cDK occurred (and why) has
been developed in a way that is consistent with the observational data from
astronomy and atomic physics. In simple terms, the light from distant
galaxies is redshifted by progressively greater amounts the further out into
space we look. This is also equivalent to looking back in time. As it turns
out, the redshift of light includes a signature as to what the value of c
was at the moment of emission. Using this signature, we then know precisely
how c (and other c-related atomic constants) has behaved with time. In
essence, we now have a data set that goes right back to the origin of the
cosmos. This has allowed a definitive cDK curve to be constructed from the
data and ultimate causes to be uncovered. It also allows all radiometric and
other atomic dates to be corrected to read actual orbital time, since theory
shows that cDK affects the run-rate of these clocks.
A very recent development on the cDK front has been the London Press
announcement on November 15th, 1998, of the possibility of a significantly
higher light-speed at the origin of the cosmos. I have been privileged to
receive a 13 page pre-print of the Albrecht-Magueijo paper (A-M paper) which
is entitled “A time varying speed of light as a solution to cosmological
puzzles”. From this fascinating paper, one can see that a very high initial
c value really does answer a number of problems with Big Bang cosmology. My
main reservation is that it is entirely theoretically based. It may be
difficult to obtain observational support. As I read it, the A-M paper
requires c to be at least 10^60 times its current speed from the start of
the Big Bang process until “a phase transition in c occurs, producing
matter, and leaving the Universe very fine-tuned ...”. At that transition,
the A-M paper proposes that c dropped to its current value. By contrast, the
redshift data suggests that cDK may have occurred over a longer time.
Some specific questions relating to the cDK work have been raised. Helen Fryman
wrote to me that someone had suggested “that the early measurements of c had
such large probable errors attached, that (t)his inference of a changing
light speed was unwarranted by the data.” This statement may not be quite
accurate, as Montgomery’s analysis does not support this conclusion.
However, the new data set from the redshift resolves all such understandable
reservations.
There have been claims that I ‘cooked’ or mishandled the data by selecting
figures that fit the theory. This can hardly apply to the 1987 Report as all
the data is included. Even the Skeptics admitted that “it is much harder to
accuse Setterfield of data selection in this Report”. The accusation may
have had some validity for the early incomplete data sets of the preliminary
work, but I was reporting what I had at the time. The rigorous data analyses
of Montgomery’s papers subsequent to the 1987 Report have withstood all
scrutiny on this point and positively support cDK. However, the redshift
data in the forthcoming paper overcomes all such objections, as the trend is
quite specific and follows a natural decay form unequivocally.
Finally, Douglas Kelly’s book “Creation and Change” contained a very fair
critique on cDK by Professor Fred Skiff. However, a few comments may be in
order here to clarify the issue somewhat. Douglas Kelly appears to derive
most of his information from my 1983 publication “The Velocity of Light and
the Age of the Universe”. He does not appear to reference the 1987 Report
which updated all previous publications on the cDK issue. As a result, some
of the information in this book is outdated. In the “Technical And
Bibliographical Notes For Chapter Seven” on pp.153-155 several corrections
are needed as a result. In the paragraph headed by “1. Barry Setterfield”
the form of the decay curve presented there was updated in the 1987 Report,
and has been further refined by the redshift work which has data back
essentially to the curve’s origin. As a result, a different date for
creation emerges, one in accord with the text that Christ, the Apostles and
Church Fathers used. Furthermore this new work gives a much better idea of
the likely value for c at any given date. The redshift data indicate that
the initial value of c was (2.54 x 10^10) times the speed of light now. This
appears conservative when compared with the initial value of c from the A-M
paper of 10^60 times c now.
Professor Skiff then makes several comments. He suggests that cDK may be
acceptable if “Planck’s constant is also changing in such a way as to keep
the fine structure ‘constant’ constant.” This is in fact the case as the
1987 Report makes clear.
Professor Skiff then addresses the problem of the accuracy of the
measurements of c over the last 300 years. He rightly points out that there
are a number of curves which fit the data. Even though the same comments
still apply to the 1987 Report, I would point out that the curves and data
that he is discussing are those offered in 1983, rather than those of 1987.
It is unfortunate that the outcome of the more recent analyses by Montgomery
are not even mentioned in Douglas Kelly’s book.
Professor Skiff is also correct in pointing out that the extrapolation from
the 300 years data is “very speculative”. Nevertheless, geochronologists
extrapolate by factors of up to 50 million to obtain dates of 5 billion
years on the basis of less than a century’s observations of half-lives.
However, the Professor’s legitimate concern here should be largely
dissipated by the redshift results which take us back essentially to the
origin of the curve and define the form of that curve unambiguously.
The other issue that the Professor spends some time on is the theoretical
derivation for cDK, and a basic photon idea which was used to support the
preferred equation in the 1983 publication. Both that equation and the
theoretical derivation were short-lived. The 1987 Report presented the
revised scenario. The upcoming redshift paper has a completely defined
curve, that has a solid observational basis throughout. The theory of why c
decayed along with the associated changes in the related atomic constants,
is rooted firmly in modern physics with only one very reasonable basic
assumption needed. I trust that this forthcoming paper will be accepted as
contributing something to our knowledge of the cosmos.
Professor Skiff also refers to the comments by Dr. Wytse Van Dijk who said that “If (t)his model is
correct, then atomic clocks should be slowing compared to dynamical clocks.” This has indeed been
observed. In fact it is mentioned in our 1987 Report. There we point out that the lunar and planetary
orbital periods, which comprise the dynamical clock, had been compared with atomic clocks from
1955 to 1981 by Van Flandern and others. Assessing the evidence in 1984, Dr. T. C. Van Flandern
came to a conclusion. He stated that “the number of atomic seconds in a dynamical interval is
becoming fewer. Presumably, if the result has any generality to it, this means that atomic phenomena
are slowing with respect to dynamical phenomena ...” This is the observational evidence that Dr.
Wytse Van Dijk and Professor Skiff required. Further details of this assessment by Van Flandern can
be found in “Precision Measurements and Fundamental Constants II”, pp.625-627, National Bureau of Standards (US) Special Publication 617 (1984), B. N. Taylor and W. D. Phillips editors.
In conclusion, I would like to thank Fred Skiff for his very gracious
handling of the cDK situation as presented in Douglas Kelly’s book. Even
though the information on which it is based is outdated, Professor Skiff’s
critique is very gentlemanly and is deeply appreciated. If this example were
to be followed by others, it would be to everyone’s advantage.
BARRY SETTERFIELD
January 25, 1999